Uncertainty has a price
Option premiums can incorporate substantial uncertainty before an earnings announcement. Once the event occurs, some of that uncertainty disappears. A call can lose value even after a favorable stock move when the change is insufficient to offset the premium decline.
A range is not a strategy backtest
Knowing the stock moved outside a headline implied range does not establish the profit of a specific option trade. You need entry and exit prices, expiration, strike, bid-ask assumptions, and transaction costs.
Understand both sides of the trade
A long straddle pays premium and can lose that premium. Selling options collects premium but introduces substantial tail risk; a small historical breach rate does not remove that risk. This database does not recommend either trade.
Inspect the inputs
Open the row evidence, confirm the event and quote timestamps, and examine the option spread. Wide markets can make the midpoint unavailable as an executable price. The export keeps the raw inputs for this reason.
Sources and further reading
This guide explains a tool and its assumptions. It is not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice.
Put the explanation to work.
Change the assumptions, compare the results, and export the numbers without creating an account.
Open EarningsMoveBook